Every single week of the NFL season I deliver you my best bet on the side or total for each game in the "Road to 272 Bets", but this year I've decided to not leave the player prop bettors stranded. For the 2024 campaign, I've also been giving out my top 10 player props on a weekly basis.
We continued the trend of going 5-5 in Week 6, but thanks to Michael Wilson for cashing in big for us as an anytime touchdown scorer, we finished with a profit of 2.02 units. That brings our season-to-date record with player props to 30-29-1 for +3.06 units.
Let's see if we can keep moving in the right direction. It's time to rank my top 10 player props for the Week 7 slate.
Best NFL Player Props for Week 710) Geno Smith OVER 263.5 Pass Yards (-115)
The Falcons' secondary has generally had a solid start to their season, allowing only 193.0 passing yards per game this season, but if you look at some of their advanced analytics, there's reason to believe they're going to regress in the coming weeks. They're 21st in opponent dropbacks EPA and 20th in opponent dropback success rate, which tells me teams have had more success throwing the ball against them than some of the more simple statistics show.
Now they have to face a Seahawks team that throws the ball more than any other team in the NFL. They throw the ball on 68.35% of plays, which is 2.72% more than the next closest team. That has resulted in Geno Smith averaging 296.3 passing yards per game, the most in the NFL. It's also 33 more yards than his set total for this game.
If he sniffs his season average against Atlanta on Sunday, this bet will be a winner.
9) Diontae Johnson OVER 66.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Diontae Johnson has been one of the most targeted receivers in the NFL this season. His 55 targets are tied with CeeDee Lamb for the third most in the league. That tells me he's going to get plenty of opportunities to produce against one of the worst secondaries he'll face this season.
The Commanders are 28th in opponent dropback EPA, 31st in opponent dropback success rate, and 28th in opponent yards per pass attempt (7.5). The Panthers should find success through the air against this unit and Johnson is going to be a huge benefactor of that.
8) Breece Hall UNDER 61.5 Rush yards (-119)
Breece Hall has struggled this season when facing elite run defenses. He gained just four yards on 10 carries against the Broncos and 23 yards on nine carries against the Vikings. He also managed just 54 yards on 16 carries against a solid run defense in New England back in Week 3.
In Week 7, he'll have to face one of the most elite run defenses in the NFL. The Steelers are allowing only 3.6 yards per rush, the second lowest mark amongst all teams, while also ranking second in opponent rush EPA.
The Jets will be able to find some success through the air against Pittsburgh, but they're going to struggle to get Hall going on the ground.
7) Josh Allen To Throw an Interception (+115)
Josh Allen has yet to throw an interception this season, but I'm willing to bet that streak ends this weekend, especially at plus-money.
The Titans' secondary doesn't get the credit they deserve. They lead the NFL in opponent dropback success rate while allowing a league-leading 5.0 yards per pass attempt. They haven't been able to rack up the interceptions yet, but it's clear the turnovers will come sooner rather than later based on how good of a job they've done stopping the pass.
Tennessee's secondary is elite and at +115 I love the value on Allen throwing his first pick of the 2024 campaign.
6) Demario Douglas Touchdown (+340)
My weekly dark horse anytime touchdown bet is going to be Demario Douglas of the Patriots to find the end zone against the Jaguars in London. He is by far the top receiver for the Patriots and he thrived in Drake Maye's first start last week, hauling in six receptions on nine targets including one for a score. His nine targets were four more than any other pass-catcher for the Patriots saw.
More importantly, the Jaguars' secondary has been horrific to start the year and they've allowed 2.3 passing touchdowns per game, by far the most in the NFL.
5) Drake Maye OVER 203.5 Pass Yards (-117)
I'm going to take the sentiment above and try to take advantage of a poor Jaguars' secondary again by betting on Maye to go OVER 203.5 pass yards in his second career start. New England wasn't afraid to let Maye toss the rock in his debut start, throwing the ball 33 times, completing 20 of them for 243 yards.
Now he gets to face a Jacksonville secondary that's 29th in opponent yards per pass attempt (7.7), 27th in opponent dropback success rate, and dead last in opponent dropback EPA. Maye has a great matchup ahead of him.
4) Tee Higgins OVER 5.5 Receptions (+123)
Tee Higgins may be the No. 2 receiver for the Cincinnati Bengals behind Ja'Marr Chase but he's seen a ton of balls thrown his way when he's been active this season. Despite playing in two fewer games than Chase, he has seen just five fewer total targets. He has had two games this season where he's seen double-digit targets including 14 against the Ravens.
Higgins has also gone OVER 5.5 receptions in three of his four starts, so I see no reason why we shouldn't take the OVER 5.5 receptions against the Browns at +123 odds.
3) Tony Pollard OVER 63.5 Rush Yards (-119)
The Bills have more issues than the public may realize. One of their biggest weak spots this season has been their run defense. They have allowed 5.3 yards per carry on the year, the most amongst all 32 teams. They also rank 22nd in opponent rush EPA. Breece Hall ran for 113 yards against them in Week 6, Derrick Henry went for 199 against them in Week 4, and even Travis Etienne posted 68 yards on 11 carries against them in Week 3.
That means Tony Pollard should be poised for a big game against them on Sunday. He has surpassed 63.5 rush yards in three of the Titan's five games this season while averaging 4.3 yards per rush attempt. He also averaged 15.6 carries per game so he'll get his fair share of chances against the Bills.
2) Spencer Rattler UNDER 183.5 Pass Yards (-115)
Spencer Rattler faces an impossible task against the Denver Broncos on Thursday night. He's going to be making his second career start on a short week and he'll have to do it against a Broncos secondary that allows just 170.2 passing yards per game. They also rank third in opponent dropback EPA and sixth in opponent dropback success rate.
To make matters worse, he'll be missing his top two receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed who are both out with injuries. That means he's left with the likes of Bub Means, Cedrick Wilson Jr., Maston Tipton, and Juwan Johnson to throw the ball to. Yikes.
This is truly a disaster of a situation that Rattler is walking into on Thursday Night Football.
1) Baker Mayfield OVER 258.5 Pass Yards (-117)
The Ravens have re-established themselves as one of the elite teams in the NFL after starting the season in an 0-2 hole, but not enough people are talking about just how bad their secondary has been this season.
Baltimore is 26th in opponent yards per pass attempt (7.5), 27th in opponent dropback EPA, and 23rd in opponent dropback success rate. They're also allowing the second-most total passing yards per game at 275.7 and the most pass plays of 20+ yards (28).
That's great news for Baker Mayfield who's having a career year with a stacked receiving core that can take advantage of this weakness of the Ravens. He's already averaging 248.2 passing yards per game this season so we need him to just go over his season average by 11 yards to cash this bet.
Finally, with a the Ravens favored, the Buccaneers may have to enter a negative game script to try to come from behind late in the game, which should lead to more passing opportunities for the Tampa Bay quarterback. This is my favorite player prop of the week.
