The Premier League is not only split into three sections at the moment, but the top six has become segregated too. Chelsea have gone storming towards the title and are living in their own, cosy world at the Premier League summit, while the chasing pack tussle amongst themselves for the remaining glories of Champions League qualification.
The closest teams to Chelsea – Spurs and Manchester City – have built themselves a plump four point cushion to fourth-placed Liverpool. Mauricio Pochettino and Pep Guardiola can be pleased with their work to date, and their top four statuses are looking increasingly secure. City and Spurs might be finally accepting the title is out of reach, but their recent performances have been a cut above the three remaining top six juggernauts.
Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester United are separated by only three points, but Jurgen Klopp’s side have played a match more than their rivals. Form and the patterns of this season suggest that it is between Klopp, an increasingly under fire Arsene Wenger and Jose Mourinho for the final Champions League place.
With all of their rivals in FA Cup action this weekend, Liverpool face the risk of a recurring nightmare as Burnley visit Anfield. Their second Premier League match of the season saw the Reds fall to Sean Dyche’s industrious Clarets at Turf Moor in the ultimate smash and grab. Despite having 80% of the possession, Liverpool were unable to find the net. Burnley found it twice. It was a solitary blot on Liverpool’s sensational early season form, but it was a warning of what was to come later in the campaign.
Defeats to Bournemouth, Swansea, Wolves, Hull and Leicester followed. Klopp’s side fell dramatically from title contention to the lower echelons of the top six without losing a single league match to a top half side. Their record against their top six rivals continues to dazzle, with victories over Arsenal and Tottenham in the last month highlighting that, but their inability to beat the teams that they should beat has cost them a dreamy end to the season. It looked like it could be their year, then it all came crumbling down.
Each defeat has followed a similar pattern to that first slip up at Turf Moor. Dominate possession, make defensive errors, leave too much space to counter-attack and get sucker punched. The predictability of it makes it no less painful, just increasingly frustrating to watch, even as a neutral. Klopp has not adapted his game plan, the individual mistakes have continued, and it leaves Liverpool at the mercy of a bloodthirsty Mourinho side.
Burnley will, like Liverpool, not be surprising anyone with their tactics this weekend. Dyche’s side will sit very deep, not allowing any space for Sadio Mane to run in to and allow Liverpool to pass the ball to their overlapping full-backs in the knowledge they will be able to clear any crosses. Andre Gray will provide the threat on the counter while Ashley Barnes will make a nuisance of himself and hound Liverpool’s defensive midfielder into a mistake.
The dreadful away record of Burnley serves as a glimmer of positivity Liverpool. A confident Reds side, who swept the floor with Arsenal last weekend, should be able to thrash a Burnley team who have picked up only two points away from home all season, shouldn’t they?
Klopp will be hoping that is the case. Burnley’s away performances are on the rise, however. It took a stoppage time Fernando Llorente winner to deny them a point at the Liberty Stadium in their last outing and they snatched a point away at Hull in the match before that.
Burnley are a hard side to break down, as Liverpool will remember all too well, making them the worst possible opponent for this Liverpool side right now. The Clarets are disciplined to their rigid defensive structure and will hold firm against the most ferocious of attacks, this is the real test of Liverpool’s development of a team.
With all their rivals out of league action this weekend, though, this is a vital chance to get points on the board for Liverpool. Failure to capitalise on this situation leaves the door not only ajar, but wide open for Manchester United and Arsenal. Resolute, organised, counter-attacking teams have been the arch nemesis of Liverpool this season, but that has to change immediately if Liverpool are to gain any advantage in the race for the final top four spot.
A six point gap with two games in hand over Manchester United would give Liverpool breathing space, at least temporarily.
A Mourinho team with a rested Zlatan Ibrahimovic to return, a deflated, turbulent Arsenal or a Liverpool side who have such a glaringly obvious kryptonite? I know who I’d be backing to grab the final Champions League spot if things don’t change.
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