Chelsea have been on a relatively good run of form over the last month or so, as following their meek display against Wolverhampton Wanderers on Christmas Eve, Mauricio Pochettino has overseen five wins, one draw and just a single defeat in all competitions.
The Argentine has guided his side into the final of the League Cup, the Fifth Round of the FA Cup and up to ninth in the Premier League, so it would be fair to say that morale around the team is much higher than it was just a month ago.
So, with the transfer window winding down, adding a talented attacker to the mix can only improve the situation, right?
Well, with the latest striker touted for a move to Stamford Bridge winning comparisons to one of the club's biggest-ever transfer flops, Romelu Lukaku, perhaps this is a move that Todd Boehly and Co should not be pursuing.
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According to The Athletic's David Ornstein, Chelsea have 'held dialogue' over making a potential deal for Aston Villa's young Colombian striker, Jhon Duran.
The transfer expert has revealed that while Unai Emery isn't the 'biggest fan' of the 20-year-old, the Blues consider him to possess 'vast potential' and would be willing to sign him were the Villans to agree to a price they 'deem fair.'
There has not been a reliable report regarding how much a deal might cost the Pensioners, but Football Transfers' Expected Value model prices the youngster at around £7m, although considering the Claret and Blue paid £18m to land the forward only a year ago, this seems unlikely.
However, as he has made little to no impact at Villa Park in that time and is still out injured, the Champions League chasers might be looking to cut their losses, which begs the question, why on earth would Chelsea want to sign him?
The stats that show why Chelsea shouldn't sign Jhon Duran
While the Blues are currently on a good run of form, the fact that said run of form has still only seen them climb to ninth in the table suggests that they have been woeful for most of the season so far. While there are a plethora of reasons as to why they have struggled so much, the most significant is their inability to score.
According to Understat, Pochettino's side are the second-biggest underachievers when it comes to their expected goals this season, scoring just 35 from a figure of 44, which means that with a competent strike force, the club would have an additional nine goals to their tally, which could well be the difference between midtable mediocrity and European football come May.
So, with that in mind, it would make sense to sign a striker the manager can rely on to score the chances he is given, rather than a player in Duran who has struggled to score since moving to England.
The Colombian international has scored just four goals in his 35 appearances for the Villans, and while his minutes have been limited, only two of his goals have come in the league, with one coming in Conference League qualifiers and one in the competition proper.
Appearances
Goals
26
2
1
0
1
0
2
1
5
1
27
8
The "complete forward", as he was once dubbed by talent scout Jacek Kulig, wasn't even particularly prolific in the MLS either, scoring eight goals in 1364 minutes of action, meaning he scored a goal every 170 minutes in a far weaker league.
If his disappointing goal record wasn't convincing enough, then perhaps the comparisons to the club's £97.5m flop, Lukaku, will be.
The former Chicago Fire ace has often been compared to the Belgian in his short career thanks to his size, physicality and movement with the ball at his feet, with GOAL's Ryan Tolmich writing –
'Like Lukaku, Duran has the size to bully defenders, but also the pace to beat them off too. And, like Lukaku, Duran is deceptively smooth on the ball, with many watching on so occupied by the physical gifts that they don't notice his technical ability.'
While those comparisons are likely meant to be taken positively, it should leave Chelsea fans concerned, such were Lukaku's woes during his second spell at Stamford Bridge after returning in 2021.
The one-time Anderlecht man went on to score just eight league goals that season, prior to being shipped out on loan to Inter Milan and current club, Roma, with that marquee move having failed to work out for the Blues or the player to date.
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Ultimately, the west London club need a new striker, of that there is no doubt, but adding another young, inexperienced and profligate striker to the squad isn't the answer, especially if he has shades of Lukaku about him.
