Tuesday’s five-game NBA slate features four double-digit spreads, including a 13.5-point spread in the Philadelphia 76ers-Denver Nuggets matchup in Denver.
Joel Embiid won’t suit up for the matchup with reigning league MVP Nikola Jokic, and the Sixers’ odds to make the playoffs keep slipping heading towards the All-Star break.
Elsewhere in the NBA, the New York Knicks are double-digit favorites on the second night of a back-to-back against the Brooklyn Nets and the Los Angeles Lakers are heavily favored against the 6-35 Washington Wizards.
While so many big favorites may make things tough from a betting perspective – blowouts could negatively impact the prop market – there are a few plays that I’m eyeing on Tuesday.
Here’s a full breakdown of the action in the NBA on Jan. 21.
NBA Best Bets Record to Date2024-25 season record: 121-121-4 (-0.84 units)OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1131-1066-26 (+37.25 units)
NBA Best Bets Today
Cameron Johnson OVER 17.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unitTyler Herro OVER 21.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unitDenver Nuggets-New York Knicks Parlay (-127)Cameron Johnson OVER 17.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit
Brooklyn’s Cameron Johnson has taken on a bigger role in the offense with Dennis Schroder now in Golden State and Cam Thomas remaining out of the lineup with an injury.
During the 2024-25 season, Johnson is averaging 19.5 points while shooting an efficient 50.0 percent from the field and 42.6 percent from 3. He’s also given the Knicks trouble, scoring 17 and 22 points in their two meetings despite taking just 10 and 12 shots in those games.
Since Dec. 16 (10 games), Johnson is averaging 21.9 points per game on 13.4 field goal attempts, scoring 18 or more points in eight of those games.
I love this matchup for him with the Knicks struggling to defend the 3-ball as of late. New York ranks dead last in opponent 3-point percentage over its last 10 games (44.2 percent!) while allowing over 14 made 3s per game.
Johnson should have a big game from beyond the arc – especially if D’Angelo Russell (questionable) sits out. The Nets don’t have many other reliable scoring options on their roster.
Tyler Herro OVER 21.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit
Even with Jimmy Butler back in the lineup, Tyler Herro is the No. 1 option for the Miami Heat offense – and for good reason.
Herro is in the middle of a career season, averaging 24.0 points, 5.7 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game while shooting 47.8 percent from the field and 40.7 percent from 3-point range.
The former Sixth Man of the Year has a real argument for the Most Improved Player award this season, and he’s undervalued at his current points prop – even with Miami heavily favored against Portland.
First off, the Heat are far from guaranteed to pick up a blowout win over the Portland Trail Blazers, and Herro torched Portland earlier this month, scoring 32 points on 11-of-22 shooting (7-for-14 from 3). The Blazers rank just 28th in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage this season and allow more than 13 made 3s per game.
That lines up well for Herro, who has cleared 21.5 points in nine of 14 games since Christmas. He’s averaging 24.3 points per game over that stretch.
Denver Nuggets-New York Knicks Parlay (-127)New York Knicks MoneylineJosh Hart 8+ ReboundsDenver Nuggets MoneylineNikola Jokic 10+ Rebounds
A little parlay action to close out this Tuesday slate? Here’s how I’m building a pair of same-game parlays for the New York Knicks and Denver Nuggets:
New York Knicks Moneyline
The Knicks are massive favorites on the second night of a back-to-back – a spot where they’re just 1-4 against the spread in this season.
However, New York should be able to handle a banged-up Brooklyn team on the road tonight. The Nets enter this game just 5-8 against the spread as home underdogs, posting an average scoring margin of -10.6 points in those games.
The Nets have fallen off since moving Schroder and Dorian Finney-Smith, ranking 28th in the NBA in net rating (-12.0) over their last 15 games. While the Knicks have struggled defensively as of late, they still have a net rating of +2.8 (11th in the NBA) over that stretch.
With Karl-Anthony Towns making his return to the lineup on Monday, the Knicks certainly have a higher ceiling offensively when it comes to this matchup – if he plays again.
Brooklyn hasn’t covered in a home game since Dec. 8 against the Milwaukee Bucks, losing games by 29, 11, nine, 29, 14 and 15 over their last six home appearances. I’m buying the Knicks on Tuesday night.
Josh Hart 8+ Rebounds
Knicks wing Josh Hart has been a rebounding machine this season, averaging 9.5 rebounds per game.
While Hart only has nine boards in each of his last two games, he’s picked up at least eight boards in 14 of his last 15 games. In addition to that, Hart has 12 games over that 15-game stretch with 11 or more rebounds, averaging 12.4 per game.
Brooklyn is a favorable matchup, as the Nets rank 25th in the NBA in rebounding percentage this season. Even with Karl-Anthony Towns returning on Monday, I’m buying Hart’s rebound prop.
Denver Nuggets Moneyline
Can anyone trust the Philadelphia 76ers right now?
With Embiid out and Paul George, Andre Drummond and Guerschon Yabusele questionable, the Sixers have too many questions in their rotation for me to back them on the road against the Nuggets on Tuesday.
Denver enters this game with the No. 4 in the offense in the NBA, a significant advantage over the 76ers and their No. 24 offense. Not only that, but Denver is a respectable 7-7-1 against the spread when favored at home this season.
The same cannot be said for the Sixers as road underdogs. Philly is just 3-9-1 against the spread in that spot this season – the second-worst mark in the NBA. On top of that, the Sixers have posted an average scoring margin of -11.1 points per game in those matchups.
Denver should easily win this matchup with no major players listed on the injury report outside of Jamal Murray (who is probable). Philadelphia also has won just two of its 13 games as a road underdog all season.
If George sits, I can’t expect Tyrese Maxey to carry this Sixers team alone on Tuesday.
Nikola Jokic 10+ Rebounds
So far this season, Nuggets center Nikola Jokic is averaging 13.2 rebounds on 21.9 rebound chances per game.
He now has a great matchup against Philly with three of its top bigs (Embiid, Drummond and Yabusele) all on the injury report on Tuesday night.
Jokic has cleared 12.5 rebounds (his prop tonight) in nine of his last 14 games, averaging 13.5 rebounds per game over that stretch. Philly also ranks in the NBA in rebounding percentage, so I’m expecting plenty of uncontested boards for the Nuggets star.
I’ll gladly move this down to 10+ rebonds for The Joker on Tuesday.
